The Oak

US undermining democracy in Ethiopia to prop up dictatorship in Egypt

I wrote a piece about recent changes in US foreign policy toward Ethiopia. Here’s an excerpt:

But of course water is the key and it brings us to our final hypothesis, which is the Egyptian angle. It is no coincidence that all of this strange stuff is overlapping with GERD. Fundamentally, GERD itself is actually not harmful to Egypt, and there is a reasonable way to share the Nile long term — the Cooperative Framework Agreement. But politically, GERD is a threat to the Al Sisi regime right now. The military government in Egypt lives in constant fear of the Muslim brotherhood, fear of a new iteration of the Arab Spring of 2011, etc. The exaggerated almost caricatural “strongman” image Al Sisi cultivates is because he needs to project strength.

That’s how he got there in 2013, it is in the nature of his power. The moment he shows weakness, he’s toast. Like the oak tree in the fable, if he bends he breaks. And nothing makes him look weaker than Ethiopia going ahead with GERD despite his intransigence. Egypt will be fine but the current Egyptian government is at risk, and the best way to minimize that risk is to destabilize Ethiopia enough that GERD is stopped or at least delayed until it can be done in a “pliant” way that makes Al Sisi look “strong” domestically in Egypt.

But why does the US care about this oak tree regime more than peace in the horn of Africa?

The post entitled “Pay any price, bear any burden” explains why I think there’s a change, what may explain it, and how it may play out.